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Bitcoin Derivatives Traders as U.S. regulators deliberate the approval of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), derivatives traders are actively entering the market, anticipating that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will grant approval to several ETF applicants. The surge in open interest, reflecting the amount invested in bitcoin futures, has been notable, reaching $19.2 billion in early December, the highest level in two years, according to Coinglass. This heightened interest suggests traders are positioning themselves ahead of the SEC’s decision.
1. Growing Open Interest in Bitcoin Futures
Open interest in bitcoin futures has steadily increased since October, peaking at $19.2 billion and currently ranging between $17 billion and $18 billion. Derivatives traders are closely monitoring developments, with anticipation built into the options market’s pricing since October. Analysts suggest that the SEC’s decision will likely have a significant impact on market dynamics and trading strategies.
2. Long-Awaited Approval for Spot Bitcoin ETFs
Spot bitcoin ETFs listed on U.S. exchanges have faced a prolonged wait for regulatory approval. These ETFs would provide a pathway for mainstream investors to access bitcoin through traditional stock exchanges, potentially attracting significant institutional investment. Despite numerous applications since 2013, the SEC has consistently rejected spot bitcoin ETFs, expressing concerns about vulnerability to market manipulation.
3. Positive Signs for Bitcoin Funding Rates
Bitcoin funding rates across exchanges have witnessed increases, indicating a willingness among traders to pay more to maintain long positions. Positive funding rates have been consistent since October, aligning with the surge in bitcoin’s spot price, which surpassed $45,000 on January 2, following a remarkable 170% rise in 2023.
4. Market Excitement and Institutional Interest
Both retail and institutional investors have shown heightened interest, leading to soaring premiums for bitcoin futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). The front-month BTC premium on CME has averaged 42%, reaching an all-time high, signaling a substantial long bias in the market.
5. Potential Market Volatility with SEC Decision
While optimism prevails, market observers caution that a negative outcome regarding spot ETF approval could trigger a significant sell-off. Bitcoin’s spot price recently experienced fluctuations, dropping below $43,000 after reaching a high, resulting in liquidations and a reduction in open interest.
6. Sensitivity to News and Regulatory Developments
The bitcoin options market reflects heightened volatility, with at-the-money implied volatility at its highest levels in a year. Traders are closely watching for regulatory decisions, with the fear of missing out (FOMO) sentiment elevated
as indicated by Coinglass’ crypto fear & greed index reaching a two-month high and firmly in “greed” territory.
In conclusion, the anticipation surrounding the SEC’s decision on bitcoin ETFs has fueled increased activity in the derivatives market
leading to heightened volatility and strategic positioning by traders. The market’s sensitivity to regulatory developments underscores the potential impact of decisions on bitcoin’s future trajectory and investor sentiment.